UK Election 8 June 2017 Prosperity before Austerity: Vote Labour?

Summary

  • UK is rich and under taxed relative to rest of Western Europe
  • UK has worse health outcomes than rest of Europe
  • Only Labour has any remote chance of making changes to depressing scenario
  • BREXIT: market forces not politician negotiating skills will decide

Inputs and Outputs

  • UK pays less tax: per capita and as % GDP
  • UK has more unequal income distribution
  • UK has fewer doctors per person
  • UK has worse cancer mortality

Deficits: £billions needed to match other countries

  • Matching on tax revenue: France extra £81billion; Germany extra £116 billion
  • Matching on health spend: France extra £52billion; Germany extra £75 billion

UK good performance

  • UK has best index for equality of access to health care NOT depending on income
  • May be because UK is (probably) only country with health care free at point of access. Other universal access systems are pay 1st, then get reimbursed.
  • UK has low suicide rate

Evidence

ProsperityAusterity

Country Population Income £ /capita Tax %GDP Tax £ /capita Un-equal Gini Deficit All £ Billion Deficit Health £ Billion Doctor /100k people Cancer mortality /100k py Health access index Suicide /100k
United Kingdom 65,128,861 34,054 34.4 11,715 34 0 0 2.8 110.0 60 8.5
Germany 81,679,769 31,921 40.6 12,960 28 81 75 3.9 100.8 28 13.4
France 66,538,391 28,180 47.9 13,498 32 116 52 3.4 107.9 40 16.9
Netherlands 16,939,923 34,334 39.8 13,665 26 127 89 78.4 29 11.9
Belgium 11,249,420 31,360 47.9 15,021 35 215 48 4.9 116.2 20 20.5
Austria 8,638,366 33,827 43.4 14,681 35 193 83 4.8 103.5 20 16.4
Italy 60,730,582 23,250 43.5 10,114 34 -104 -34 4.1 101.8 40 7.9
Spain 46,443,994 19,911 37.3 7,427 23 -279 -64 4.9 98.1 60 8.5
Sweden 9,799,186 39,213 45.8 17,960 25 407 145 3.9 92.2 50 15.4
Denmark 5,683,483 41,097 50.8 20,877 28 597 128 124.9 40 12.2
Finland 5,479,531 32,871 43.6 14,332 28 170 34 86.1 40 16.2
Norway 5,190,239 57,738 43.6 25,174 23 877 282 4.3 99.3 60 10.9
Switzerland 8,281,430 62,790 29.4 18,460 25 439 290 4.0 92.5 50 15.1
Canada 35,848,610 33,578 32.2 10,812 33 -59 69 103.2 40 12.3
Australia 23,789,752 43,636 25.8 11,258 35 -30 106 3.3 97.6 20 11.8
New Zealand 4,595,700 29,309 34.5 10,111 26 -104 49 97.6 29 12.6
United States 321,418,820 43,501 26.0 11,310 43 -26 276 2.5 105.8 9 14.3
Japan 126,958,472 26,763 28.3 7,574 24 -270 -12 93.8 20 19.6
Korea, Rep. 50,617,045 21,102 26.8 5,655 24 -395 -95 2.1 125.5 20 32.0
Israel 8,380,100 27,697 36.8 10,193 28 -99 -52 3.3 94.4 28 5.5
Poland 37,986,412 9,736 33.8 3,291 23 -549 -153 2.2 131.0 60 22.3

Who to vote for?

IMHO Labour is most likely to match other Western European countries on tax revenue and hence on much needed spending: on health, education , housing and infrastructure (e.g. transport, internet access).

Corbyn voted against austerity cuts aimed at “cutting deficits”. Many other labour MPs and LibDems voted with government for austerity. Ask Labour candidates about that!

Nothing wrong with high deficits if on infrastructure that will build wealth in future, as Varounakis failed to convince the EU.

Theresa May has her heart in the right place, but is unlikely to be able to generate sufficient funds because of commitment to low taxes and deficit reduction

But high taxes are associated with low GDP per capita?

NO! Evidence from graph

 

BUT its really hard to get good comparisons on the distribution of taxes between sources. (E.g. income tax, vat, corporation tax, levies, etc.,etc)

Mean Income in £ per capita as function of mean tax in £ per capita

Sources

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